More than one in ten U.S. shoppers now believe Cyber Week is a scam — and they’re not just venting. According to Driver Research’s 2025 Holiday Shopping Report, 12% of over 1,200 surveyed consumers explicitly agreed with that statement, up from 9% in 2024. It’s not anger. It’s exhaustion. People are tired of chasing deals that don’t add up. They’ve seen the same $200 TV go from ‘$599’ to ‘$399’ year after year — only to find the real price was never $599 to begin with. The illusion is cracking. And shoppers? They’re adjusting.
Why the Deals Don’t Feel Real Anymore
The numbers tell a story no ad campaign can spin away. Bank of America’s late-summer 2025 survey of 2,000+ households found that 58% of consumers say holiday gifts feel more expensive than ever. Even more telling: holiday spending per household rose 6% year-over-year, while total retail transaction volumes dipped. In plain terms — people are spending more money, but buying less. That’s not inflation. That’s a system out of sync.
Blame? Many point to the spring 2025 tariffs on electronics, jewelry, and home goods. Over half of Bank of America respondents named them as a primary driver of price hikes. That’s not speculation. It’s logic. If a $150 wireless speaker now costs $180 because of new duties on Chinese-made components, and retailers don’t absorb the cost, consumers notice. And they remember.
The Rise of the ‘Dupe’ and the Discount Hunt
When luxury feels unaffordable, people find alternatives. Queue-it.com’s analysis of 149 Black Friday trends shows 51% of financially strained shoppers are open to gifting a ‘dupe’ — a cheaper imitation of a high-end product. Think: a $40 Bluetooth speaker that looks like a $200 Bose. Or a knockoff designer scarf from a discount warehouse. And it’s not just about looks. Forty percent of shoppers say they’re actively switching to private-label brands. Walmart, Target, and Aldi aren’t just alternatives anymore — they’re the new default.
Eighty-seven percent of those feeling financial pressure say they’ll shop at discount stores this holiday season. Meanwhile, 48% admit they’ll abandon their favorite brands if the price feels wrong. This isn’t brand loyalty fading. It’s value redefined. People aren’t rejecting brands — they’re rejecting false savings.
Online Sales Are Up. But Are Shoppers Really Winning?
Adobe predicts U.S. online Black Friday sales will hit $11.7 billion in 2025 — an 8.3% jump from last year. Mobile traffic will drive 56% of that spend. Buy Now, Pay Later services are expected to fuel $20 billion in purchases. Sounds like a boom, right? Maybe. But here’s the twist: those same shoppers are using AI to cut through the noise.
Sixty-six percent say they’ve used generative AI in the past three months to compare prices, find alternatives, or even write gift notes. That’s up from 39% in 2024. They’re not just browsing — they’re auditing. And they’re overwhelmed. Seventy-six percent report feeling paralyzed by too many choices. The digital shelf is endless. The deals? Often thin.
The Quiet Shift in Shopping Behavior
Black Friday isn’t dead. It’s just different. Seventy-one percent of shoppers plan to buy online. Only 29% will brave the stores. And even among those who do, 52% say the main reason they avoid in-person shopping is — not the crowds — but the lack of real value. They’ve been burned too many times.
Walmart still leads in-store traffic at 71%, followed by Target at 56%. Amazon? Dominant online with 94% of shoppers planning to use it during Cyber Week. But here’s what’s new: 26% of consumers say they’ll use loyalty points to offset costs. And 26% are starting their shopping in October — not November — to spread out the pain. This isn’t impulse buying anymore. It’s budgeting with strategy.
What’s Really Driving the Change?
It’s not one thing. It’s the pile-up.
- 70% of Black Friday shoppers cite rising cost of living as their top reason to cut back — with groceries (57%) topping the list.
- 24% plan to spend $1,000 or more — but they’re not doing it blindly. They’re comparing, clipping, and waiting.
- Almost 1 in 4 shoppers say they’ll skip deals entirely if they feel manipulated by fake countdown timers or inflated ‘original’ prices.
Remember the ‘doorbuster’? The one that sold out in 12 minutes? That’s becoming a myth. Retailers are still running the same scripts. But the audience? They’ve stopped believing the script.
What Comes Next?
Don’t expect retailers to stop the gimmicks. But expect shoppers to get smarter. AI tools will get better. Loyalty programs will evolve. Private labels will grow. And if a brand keeps pretending its ‘50% off’ sale is a steal — it’ll lose trust faster than ever.
The holiday season isn’t about to collapse. But the old playbook? It’s outdated. The winners in 2026 won’t be the ones with the flashiest ads. They’ll be the ones offering honest prices, clear savings, and real value. No spin. No smoke. Just a good deal.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why are more shoppers calling Cyber Week a scam?
A growing number of shoppers — 12% in 2025, up from 9% in 2024 — say they’ve been misled by inflated original prices, fake countdowns, and deals that aren’t actually better than regular pricing. With tariffs raising costs on electronics and jewelry, and retailers passing those increases to consumers, many feel the discounts are illusions designed to drive volume, not savings.
How are consumers adapting to rising holiday costs?
Shoppers are shifting to discount retailers like Walmart and Aldi, buying private-label ‘dupes’ instead of luxury brands, and using generative AI to compare prices across platforms. Nearly half are switching brands for better value, and 87% of financially strained shoppers plan to prioritize discount stores. Many are also using loyalty points and starting shopping as early as October to avoid holiday cash crunches.
Are Black Friday sales actually declining?
Online sales are still rising — Adobe forecasts $11.7 billion for Black Friday 2025 — but transaction volumes are down. People are spending more per purchase, but buying fewer items. That suggests they’re being more selective, not more impulsive. The volume of deals is up, but the perceived value is down, leading to more strategic, less emotional shopping.
What role is AI playing in holiday shopping?
Sixty-six percent of shoppers have used generative AI in the last three months to find better deals, compare products, or identify fake discounts — up from 39% in 2024. AI tools help them cut through marketing noise, verify price histories, and even generate gift lists. This isn’t convenience — it’s survival. Shoppers are using tech to outsmart a system they no longer trust.
Why are tariffs affecting holiday gifts?
Tariffs imposed in spring 2025 on electronics, jewelry, and home goods — many of which are top holiday gift categories — raised import costs. Retailers passed those increases to consumers, making items like wireless speakers, smart home devices, and watches noticeably more expensive. Over half of Bank of America survey respondents directly linked these tariffs to higher prices, confirming a direct chain from policy to pocketbook.
Will this skepticism change how retailers market next year?
Yes. Retailers who cling to fake discounts and psychological tricks will lose trust. Those who offer transparent pricing, clear savings, and honest promotions — like ‘We lowered this price by $50, no gimmicks’ — will gain loyalty. The most successful brands in 2026 won’t be the loudest. They’ll be the ones shoppers believe.
